Blog: Local cool front today. The focus is on Hurricane Jan.

We had a few last night strong storms are moving through the region. There was a group of thunderstorms over central Virginia, and one of them was ahead of the pack. It caused some damage between Petersburg and the east coast.

Thunderstorm reports

After the first series of storms, we had more widespread and less rainfall.

It rained last night

It was raining heavily in some places. However, in some places there was very little. Here are some official rainfall reports:

Rains

I thought the Newport News report was wrong. However, Langley only had about 0.05 inches. My weather watcher, Barry in Gloucester, had just under half an inch.

This morning the rain and storm cleared the coast by the time we started the newscast. The front is now slowly advancing across the region.

Regional weather map

Today we have a bit of a chill, but it will still be warm for this time of year. High temperatures tend to be in the low-mid 80s.

Temps forecast today

We will have plenty of sunshine with steady/light westerly winds. Although it will be warm, we will slowly dry out during the day. Although in the next 12 hours it will actually be a sharp drop.

Mugi meter

We will be dry for the next 3-4 days. With the return of fall weather it should be good. the high tomorrow will be around 70 degrees. Wednesday and Thursday we will be near 70. By late Friday we may see some rain from the remnants of Ian. It’s possible that there will be a significant amount of rain next weekend, but that’s yet to be determined. Let’s talk about it.

This morning, the National Hurricane Center reported that Ian had strengthened to a hurricane. It was over the central Caribbean Sea. Closer to the center, high storms really started to develop. You can see this on the last satellite (purple areas).

Ian is on the satellite

The system moves over warm water. The sea surface temperature is in the 80s. Also, there isn’t much wind shear. So Yang has a healthy outflow at the top of the storm. Remember that these are areas of extreme low pressure, so air is wrapped into the storm at the surface and then rises around the storm. The air has to go somewhere. So it pushes itself up. If this process is disrupted, it can weaken the storm. Moderate to strong wind shear may occur prior to this.

Either way, Ian is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane and cross western Cuba early tomorrow.

Ian’s track

A hurricane may be stopped briefly as it crosses land, but that shouldn’t slow it down for long. It is then forecast to move north of the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane. In a couple of days it will make a turn to the north/northeast. It will then fall somewhere over Florida. Here’s the latest track:

Ian’s track

Now the tricky part here is the exact angle at which Ian is going. Could hook a bit to the east. If it does, it will hit land earlier and harder (perhaps near Fort Myers or Tampa. If it moves more toward the centerline, it will have more time to possibly weaken. If it moves further west, then it may weaken further before making landfall.Here are some computer models.

Forecast models

Why is this? Well, as a storm system moves north, the thermal energy of the deep ocean becomes less compared to its short-term path.

Ocean thermal energy and Yan’s track

Wind shear is also predicted to increase over time. This will be due to the large upper-level trough descending over the US and the strengthening of the winds around it. The trough will travel around a much cooler and drier air mass. A cold front is forecast to descend and envelop the system. This should help induce some relaxation. As Yang moves north over land, it must also be cut off from the warm water in the ocean. This is the primary fuel for a hurricane. Therefore, the forecast involves a weakening of the Yang.

Our Future Trak model has Ian on one of the more easterly routes. So he arrived on land near Ft. Myers and moving northeast. It will probably then heat up to the northeast and remain out to sea after that.

Trak future forecast model

Meanwhile, the latest GFS and European models match the forecast better. They both now had Yang landfall just north of Cedar Key.

GFS VS Euromodel

It then moves north/northeast and weakens.

GFS VS Euromodel

The GFS is turning into a weak/broad area of ​​low pressure moving just south of us. It does bring us rain (both actually).

GFS Precipitation Forecast

An earlier version of the GFS had about 1-2 inches. It has gone downhill ever since. Keep in mind that our precipitation forecast can change dramatically depending on which path Yang takes. So I’ll have a little more confidence in that tomorrow (hopefully).

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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